http://www.charlesprimas.com/http://www.detroitbusinesstoday.netOutlook for job market is grim
Updated 1/8/2010 8:13 PM
http://www.usatoday.com/By Paul Wiseman, USA TODAY
As they scoured the job market and counted down the days to graduation last spring, most of Christopher Hutchens' friends at Johns Hopkins University decided the transition to real life could wait: They'd seek sanctuary in graduate school until the economic thunderclouds cleared.
Hutchens' prospects were sunnier. His coursework at Johns Hopkins had prepared him for one of the nation's hottest careers: biomedical engineering. He landed a good job at a Philadelphia maker of medical devices — though even he didn't get the offer he wanted until the last day of classes.
Hutchens is one of the lucky few. Prospects for most job seekers are expected to be grim for years, no matter what Friday's government report on payrolls and unemployment shows.
Barring dramatic changes in economic policy, "We're going to have high unemployment for the next few years," says former Labor secretary Robert Reich, now professor of public policy at the University of California-Berkeley. "Even when the jobs come back, they're not going to be very good jobs."
Even as economic growth recovers from the deepest recession since the 1930s, many U.S. jobs will continue to move overseas or be replaced by technology. And consumer spending, which fuels economic and job growth, is likely to remain weak as households continue to sober up from the credit card, home-equity loan binge-spending of the past decade, economists say.
"It's going to be a long slog," says Steven Cochrane, managing director of Moody's Economy.com.
Moody's expects the unemployment rate — 10% in November — to remain high. The past couple of decades, joblessness has hovered around 5%. In the next decade, Cochrane expects it to stay closer to 5.7%.
"All signs point to a rocky recovery," says economist Heidi Shierholz at the Economic Policy Institute. "We will likely see elevated unemployment for at least the next five years." She reckons joblessness could still be stuck at 8% in 2014.
The economy must clear some imposing hurdles, Shierholz says:
•State governments, their tax revenues eroded by the recession, are slashing programs and jobs to meet balanced-budget requirements.
•The Federal Reserve, having pushed short-term interest rates close to zero, doesn't have many tools left in its economic fix-it kit.
•Consumers, whose spending accounts for 70% of economic activity, are exhausted after years of piling up debt and splurging on everything from iPods to vacation homes.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects consumer spending to grow 2.5% a year from 2008 to 2018, down from average annual growth of 3% in the previous two decades. Spending on durable goods, excluding autos, will grow 4.9% a year through 2018, down from 8.1% annual growth from 1998 to 2008. Sales of cars and light trucks won't reclaim the heights they reached in the mid-2000s, when they surpassed 16 million a year: Government forecasters expect auto sales to hit 14.4 million in 2018. Foreign competition and automation will continue to kill manufacturing jobs: The government expects factories to cut 1.2 million manufacturing jobs by 2018.
"If you work in a textile mill, the days of your job are numbered," Moody's Cochrane says.
Still, the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the overall economy to generate 15.3 million new jobs (not counting replacements) from 2008 to 2018 and forecasts 5.1% unemployment in 2018.
Where will the new jobs come from?
Depends on how you measure job growth. On a percentage basis, the fastest-growing occupations of the next decade tend to pay well and to demand highly skilled workers.
Computer network and data analysts (median wage: $71,100) will see their ranks surge 53% from 2008 to 2018, the government predicts. And financial examiners, who ensure that companies are complying with financial laws and regulations, will grow in number by 41%. Their median earnings: $70,930. (The median wage figures — half earn more, half less — are from May 2008.)
A 'cool' future for some
Seeing the fastest job growth at 72% through 2018 are biomedical engineers (median wage: $77,400). "I can see myself staying in the medical device industry," says Johns Hopkins grad Hutchens. "It's only growing. There are going to be a lot of cool projects to work on."
Johns Hopkins' undergraduate biomedical engineering program turns out about 100 graduates a year. They find a wide range of employers, says Julia Galeazzi, associate director of the university's career center: private companies seeking to design medical devices; the Pentagon looking for ways to counter bio-terrorism; the U.S. Patent Office hiring engineers who understand the latest medical gadgets. One recent graduate was dispatched to study whether cellphone frequencies pose any health risks. "The opportunities are so vast," she says.
The trouble is, the top-paying occupations are a minuscule component of the labor force: Biomedical engineers, for instance, will account for just 12,000 of the more than 15 million new jobs expected to emerge through 2018.
Measured by sheer numbers, the new jobs of the next decade don't look nearly as lucrative: The number of home health aides, for instance, is expected to expand by 461,000. But their median earnings come to just $20,460 — well below the median U.S. wage of $32,390.
Sonia Ortiz, 47, has been working in home health care for two decades in Los Angeles. She feeds the elderly and disabled, does their laundry, helps them take their pills, drives them to the doctor. She earns $9 an hour.
"It's very difficult to get by," she says. "You have to think twice about how to pay rent, buy gas, set aside a little money."
Spokane, Wash., home health aide Susie Young, 61, who's been in the business 22 years, says she sometimes thought: "I can go to McDonald's and make more money than I do now." She says wages and working conditions have improved since workers at her agency joined the Service Employees International Union in 2003.
Untransferable jobs
The economy will also demand 400,000 new customer service representatives, an occupation with median earnings of $29,860 a year; and 394,000 workers who prepare and serve food, including fast food, earning $16,430.
"These services have got to be done in person and so cannot be easily done, as so many manufacturing jobs can be done, by low-wage workers abroad," former Labor secretary Reich says. "They normally involve providing personal attention that can't easily be done by computers and software."
More than two-thirds of new jobs won't require any education past high school. For several decades after World War II, high school graduates could find decent-paying manufacturing jobs. But factories are shedding workers or closing altogether.
"It's much harder for someone who has a modest set of educational credentials to find the equivalent of an auto industry job," says Gary Burtless, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. "You can't just have a diploma and six months of on-the-job training, and expect to get wages and benefits equivalent to $18 or $30 an hour. Those kinds of jobs are much harder to get than they were in the '60s and '70s."
One bright spot: nursing. The country is expected to need 582,000 new registered nurses — a profession that pays a median $62,450 a year. Hospitals and doctor's offices in southwestern Indiana, southern Illinois and western Kentucky snap up nurses as fast as the University of Southern Indiana can turn them out, usually at starting salaries in the mid-$30,000s, says Ann White, assistant dean of nursing. But nursing isn't for everyone, she says. The university exposes nursing students to real clinical conditions as early as possible to weed out the squeamish and uncommitted. "You've got to want to be a nurse," she says.
Overall, the jobs market is stuck in an awkward place, says Daniel Stelter, a senior partner at Boston Consulting Group and co-author of the forthcoming book Accelerating Out of the Great Recession: How to Win in a Slow-Growth Economy. Old industries such as auto and steel manufacturing are shedding jobs; and promising new industries such as solar energy and biotechnology aren't mature enough to make up the difference. "Old industries are under pressure, and new industries are not yet big and strong enough."
He expects the U.S. government will attempt to salvage manufacturing jobs by promoting new industries and by exploiting a weak dollar, which makes U.S. exports more competitive overseas. Already, he notes, Germany's Daimler, citing the weak dollar, last month announced plans to boost production of C-Class Mercedes cars at its plant in Tuscaloosa, Ala.
For all the forecasts, no one really knows what the labor market will look like in a few years. In 2003, a quarter of U.S. workers were in jobs that didn't show up in government occupational listings in 1967, a report by the White House's Council of Economic Advisers noted last year.
"We don't know what technologies will be developed or what is going to happen on a national or global level," says Galeazzi at the Johns Hopkins career center. "Nobody can really predict what the job market will look like in 10 years. ... What we're trying to do is prepare our students to go out and be flexible."
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